Ingraffea Video

A while ago, I promised you a link to the video of Dr. Anthony Ingraffea's presentation at Foothills last May.  It wasn't available to the general public until recently, apparently, but now it is.

It's worth the time to watch it all - not the same old stuff.  With some ideas for alternatives. 

Enhancing the Future

There's predicting thefuture, and then there's enhancing it.

You may know that I am pretty intently focused on comprehensive planning as a way of making progress in areas we think are important. Here's a way to do that: the Department of Health's 'Otsego County Health Priorities Survey.' Help us* decide where to put our resources by telling us what areas you think are most important.

So click the link and learn about health issues in Otsego County, and then tell us which ones should have priority. The results have a direct effect on policy.

Thanks!

* - I say 'we' and 'us' because the Department of Health is overseen by the Health and Education Committee, of which I am a member.

Predicting the Future

It's budget time again, and assembling any budget is an exercise in predicting the future. In Otsego County, the future – specifically, 2014 – will present some interesting changes, which will make our budget-making task both easier and harder.

The 'easier' part is that we'll be seeing some one-time revenues, and we'll see some major costs disappear permanently. The disappearing costs will disappear when the Manor is sold; we're hoping that this happens during 2014. The process is moving well, and this may come to pass. We will spend about five million dollars on the Manor this year – that's above and beyond all reimbursements the Manor receives from Medicaid, Medicare, private pay, etc. They are taxpayer dollars subsidizing the Manor, and next year it will probably cost more.

We won't save the whole five million-plus next year; just the part of it we would have spent after the day that it is transferred to the new owner. In addition, there will be savings from services the county provides – building maintenance, payroll, IT – which won't need to be provided any more. There will be some legacy costs – health insurance for retirees, interest on the bonds, for instance – but the fiscal difference will be enormous.

Interestingly, the actual payment we receive for the Manor will not have as massive an effect on the budget as we might think. At the end of 2014, we will owe a little more than 15 million dollars on the original bonds that funded the Manor – our mortgage, so to speak. No matter how much we sell the Manor for, we will be required to put that 15 million-plus into escrow, and we will pay the yearly principal from that fund, until 2021, when we can pay it all off if we desire. Until then, we'll pay the interest from the general fund. If we sell the Manor for more than what we owe, that excess is ours to put into the financial system. But we're not planning for that, because it is too soon to estimate what we might get when the Manor is sold.

The one-time payments involve MOSA. When MOSA is dissolved, the assets will be split up. Otsego County will, by agreement, get 40% of the liquid assets (things like equipment and real estate will probably be distributed by common sense, rather than percentage). Depending on how we progress with solid waste in our County, this money may or may not have a significant effect on our finances next year.

The 'harder' part, of course, is that we don't know how any of this will shake out. The current version of the budget does not reflect any of this: revenue projections don't include the MOSA money, and the expense side includes the whole-year cost of the Manor. However, Acting Treasurer Russ Bachman has recommended that we essentially skip the grueling work of cutting positions and services to get to the point where we're under the tax cap (1.66% this year, not 2%) and have about 16% of the budget in the fund balance. He's willing to move some money from the fund balance to make up the current deficit (which changes every day as adjustments are made), assuming that, because of the Manor and MOSA issues, we'll have a surplus at the end of next year.

That's a risky approach, and the Board is mulling it over; in some ways, it sounds like magic. And the NYS Comptroller's office, which is measuring the fiscal stress of municipalities, will take notice of this reduction in the fund balance, because that's the kind of thing they take notice of. However, if everything works out, this will be a very temporary thing, and all will be well at the end of 2014.

If everything works out. Even though the vectors of unpredictability are generally good, it's making me a little uneasy to predict the future with these loose cannons involved. Sometimes, unremitting bad news can be comforting, because it's so predictable. 

UPDATE:  After I finished this post, I went over to the Daily Star site and read this article about Treasurer Russ Bachman's suggestions.  Nothing much to add to this, except that the raises for the non-unionized managerial and confidential staff (M&C) will be more controversial than dipping into the fund balance.  I'm for it - they haven't had a raise in years - but I have to be a little more convinced that the money is - and will be - there.  We'll see. 

More MOSA, Again

This is a somewhat ignorant and borderline-hysterical editorial from the Daily Star, suggesting that, as its title pronounces, “post-MOSA planning is long overdue.”

The story of Otsego County and post-MOSA planning is long and complicated.  I'm going to try to sum it up concisely. A couple of years ago, the Board passed a resolution signalling its intent to shape a public/private system to address solid waste. That was quite a while ago.  This resolution makes it clear that conversations and research had been going on a long time previous to the time when this resolution was developed. In fact, that direction was the recommendation of Hans Arnold, our consultant on solid waste. The Board had engaged Mr. Arnold to help us with – all those many years ago - “post-MOSA planning," among other solid waste issues.

If the decision had been to let the private sector take over the solid waste system, then there would have been little need for planning: we'd just let the biggest dog sweep in, put the locals out of business, and enjoy their monopoly. This is an approach that I'm especially unwilling to see come to pass, and apparently the majority of the Board agrees with me (or did, when the resolution is passed).

The demise of MOSA has been long and unnecessarily painful, mostly due to the intransigence of MOSA itself and, to a lesser extent, Schoharie County. And Montgomery County only recently truly came on board for an clean and equitable result. Otsego County – really, Board Chair Cathy Clark and Representatives Linda Rowinski, James Powers and Keith McCarty, with the invaluable assistance of Planning Directors Terry Bliss and Karen Sullivan – has taken the lead from the beginning, working hard to find the path toward a new and better way to handle our trash.

Even so, it was only recently – with the last couple of months – that progress in defining the end of MOSA has been made. Right now, things seem to be falling quickly into place, with all three counties (finally) working together. Before this point, more detailed planning was impossible, because we didn't have any idea of what the post-MOSA environment would look like. For instance, Otsego County did not know if we would end up with the two transfer stations (in Cooperstown and Oneonta), and even if we did, whether we'd retain any of the equipment and machinery associated with those stations.

The New York State Legislature has to pass a law allowing the Authority (which the Legislature created) to be dissolved – and this hasn't been done very often, at least in recent history. Apparently, folks from all over the state are watching our progress, as we invent a new way to deconstruct an Authority which has been established by the Legislature. This job isn't easy.

And post-MOSA planning – meaning long, intense conversations among people who have a history with MOSA and solid waste – continues, as it has for a number of years. We still retain Hans Arnold as our consultant; in fact, in a three-hour meeting yesterday that was mostly about post-MOSA planning, the Solid Waste/Environmental Concerns Committee recommended extending his contract (here's a link to the minutes of all the SW/EC meetings this year). Options are being developed and considered, now that we have a better idea what we'll be working with. We are building this rocket ship as it is taking off, and believe me, we're working hard on the post-landing plan.

We All Need to Get Out and Vote

How much difference a month can make!

The 'expensive blitzkreig' I mentioned in the previous post, which caused all thousand-plus signatures on Russ Bachman's petitions to be examined under a microscope (unprecedented in recent history), resulted in enough disallowed signatures that Russ will not be able to run at all. You probably read about this in the Star.

And so Dan Crowell has reorganized his plans for the future again, and has agreed to run for the seat he's held for four years. He has no control over when, or if, he is ever called up again for military training; he has been engaged in special-ops training, and the security clearance for that kind of thing can take any amount of time, including years. That's why he had to leave on relatively short notice in February.

Dan is tremendously able Treasurer. He's not only fully qualified to fulfill the job description, he is also an articulate and committed teacher. This quality is essential because we, the County Reps, are not qualified to fulfill his job description. The County financial system and budget processes are unbelievably complex and convoluted, and it's very important that decisions made at every point be made responsibly by a fully informed Board. In my time on the Board, Dan has led us through these processes clearly and carefully. He has been available for consultation on any County financial matter, and has worked energetically to streamline systems and move managers and legislators toward a more long-term, responsible view of County services. “Hometown Oneonta” did a good job recently of describing his work as Treasurer, in an almost-endorsement (I'd link to it, but their website is a mess).

So it's still as important as ever to get out and vote. It's important for Dan to remain the Treasurer of Otsego County, because noone has done as good a job as he has for a very long time. Although the County is in good fiscal condition, times are still very tough and the work of planning for the future in a wise and responsible manner is essential. I, for one, want it to be Dan that helps us move through this time to a (hopefully) more prosperous future.